Current Projects

Ecological Forecasting

2018 – Present

I am leading a team to better translate Earth System Model projections into forecasts for specific ecosystems. We’re starting with coral reefs, identifying coral refugia from observationally weighted climate model ensembles. My team will produce state-of-the-art projections of where and when the world’s coral reefs will experience sustained bleaching-level and death-level stress from ocean heat waves and acidification. Locations with relatively lower projected stress from heat and acidification (refugia) will receive increased protection from local stressors such as overfishing and polluted runoff.

This work is funded by NASA ROSES A.8: Sustaining Living Systems.

Tornadogenesis from Space

2017 – Present

The objective of this project is to determine, from remote sensing, which environmental factors distinguish tornadic supercells from non-tornadic supercells. This is challenging as satellites rarely pass overhead at the moment of storm initiation. We deal with this temporal gap by tracing air parcels back from storm initiation to where they were when the satellite passed overhead, reassembling thermodynamics from these spatially disparate (but meteorologically connected) air parcels. My colleagues and I are currently using these methods to improve forecasting lead times for tornadoes, and we hope they will eventually shed light on how tornadoes will change as the planet warms.

This work is funded by NASA and NOAA.

Satellite Data Fusion

2016 – Present

The objective of this project is to develop methods for fusing measurements of a single process (e.g. near-surface temperature, relative humidity, or vapor pressure deficit, a measure of plant stress) made by multiple satellites into a single, better product. In addition to the fundamental goal of improving how we extract information from satellite remote sensing, we are also producing optimal data records that will improve applications such as drought, fire, and agricultural forecasting.

This work is funded by NASA’s AIRS project.

Marine boundary layer stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition

2012 – Present

The objective of this project is to better understand the physics of stratocumulus clouds, especially factors controlling the transition of stratocumulus (overcast) to lower-albedo cumulus clouds in western subtropical ocean basins. Stratocumulus clouds reflect sunlight and help cool the Earth; if a warmer planet has less stratocumulus, it would mean increased warming for a given level of greenhouse gas emissions. We are currently using high-resolution geostationary data from the GOES-East imager in conjunction with air parcel tracking methods I developed in the tornadogenesis project to observe a large number of parcels transition from stratocumulus regimes to lower-albedo regimes; dissecting these transitions will allow us to more precisely understand the factors at work.

This work is funded by NASA.

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